• Local Politics: 67th Assembly Seat: The Butterfly Effect

By now I'm assuming that most of you are familiar with "The Butterfly Effect". It's a chaos theory take on cause and effect, along with the ripple effect.  

We all know how a pebble thrown into a still body of water will cause ripples to continue well past the point the stone hit the surface. The butterfly effect takes the idea to an exaggerated level.

The Butterfly Effect (with reference to chaos theory) is the phenomenon whereby a minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere.

Ok, so now you're saying, "What's Wildomar Rap mumbling about this time?"

The butterfly in this scenario is former State Senator Jeff Stone stepping down from his seat in the 28th State Senate District to accept a presidential appointment. (link to blog covering it)

That created a vacuum that took very little time to fill (the effect).

In fact, about half an hour after [then] Senator Stone's office issued a press release with the details his office issued a second press release stating that he'd endorsed Temecula City Councilman Matt Rahn in the race for the newly vacated seat (that's also in the blog linked above).

You're still wondering where the butterfly effect comes in... 

Well, to quote the Scots' favorite poet, Robbie Burns, "The best laid schemes o' mice an' men / Gang aft a-gley". In other words, things don't always work out the way you'd hoped.

Before the ink was dry on the digital endorsement from Senator Stone, 67th District Assemblywoman Melissa Melendez turned her head askance and thought, "Hmmm, perhaps someone should have checked with me first."

After a short time of giving the idea of running in a special election for the 28th State Senate seat serious consideration, she opted to put her name in the hat. It wasn't too long after that that both Jeff Stone and Matt Rahn endorsed her.

From Melissa Melendez's facebook page.

Which was a good idea because Melissa Melendez is well loved in this area, and anyone getting into a race against her would get their head pounded (just my opinion, sort of like saying the sidewalk is hot at 3pm on an August afternoon is just an opinion too).

Now, this is where the butterfly effect really hits the local political scene. With Melissa's decision to run for the State Senate seat, that left her Assembly seat open.

Such things are fairly commonplace, a politician being termed out or simply choosing not to run again. What isn't so commonplace is a seat opening up with no real advance warning. 

Over 450,000 residents
• Registered voters 238,846
• 42.26% Republican
• 29.21% Democratic
• 22.67% No party preference.

Here's where our butterfly flapped its little wings like it was trying to lift a 747

First to raise their hand in the [then] wide opened 67th District race was Lake Elsinore city councilman Steve Manos. Concurrently there were rumors that Canyon Lake city councilman Jeremy Smith was interested in running too... which was confirmed a couple of weeks later.

I was called by Jeremy, asking me for an endorsement, I happily said yes. Who wouldn't want to be asked, even if only having been elected a year earlier, and from one of the smaller cities in the region? I was actually talking about me... but that pretty much describes him too. We both got elected in 2018.

Jeremy is smart, very engaging and a good guy.

Being asked to endorse him made me feel like I was in high school again.

Ok, not really, but you get the point... don't you? ☺

Then I heard low rumblings that another local elected might be interested in the seat, and around the filing deadline it was confirmed. Murrieta city councilman Kelly Seyarto announced that he was running for the 67th too.

Great, now there are three splendid candidates that I know and respect.

Honestly, I would have said "yes" to any of the three in the image below. Jeremy reached out first, and he got the nod.

I arranged the candidates based on when they announced their intentions.

Now here's where I had to slam on the brakes and come to a skidding stop. 

I know and like all three of the candidates, I'll be happy if any of them win... I'm aware that there is a fourth candidate, but I don't know him and he's from the existing ruling party and won't be vying for votes from the same pool as the three mentioned above. (I did a google search on Jerry Carlos and found that he lost in a 2012 attempt to get onto the Lake Elsinore city council. Other than that, nothing. No mention of a campaign for the assembly. Interesting strategy... laying very low when everyone else is trying to get their name out there.)

To conclude, what could've been a 5000 word nightmare, let me say that I'm happy to endorse Jeremy Smith as I had already committed, though next time something like this occurs I'll be VERY slow to endorse, if at all. 

Whichever of the three of the Republicans (did I mention that they are all of the GOP?) will attempt to give some balance to the lopsided, one party rule up in Sacramento. Can you imagine if we were to elect, yet another Democrat to make their top heavy majority even more extreme? 

The election for the 67th will be a two parter

First up is the primary, which this year is early: March 3rd, 2020, with the absentee ballots being mailed about a month ahead of that.

This will be here sooner than you think.

Seeing that well over 50% of the registered voters in the area use absentee ballots, that really only leaves about five to six weeks for campaigning.

The top two vote getters, which I believe will consist of the Democrat (I've read that it's Jerry Carlos) and the one of the three mentioned above. I see it as highly unlikely that the top two vote-getters will be from the same party in this contest.

The election to determine the ultimate winner of Assembly District 67 will come November 3rd during our national elections. 

I bet you're salivating at the thought of 11 long months of partisan blather about how the other party will ruin the USA, and that this will be the most important election in the history of the union. Which is the same thing we've heard every four years since the beginning of time. 

To sum this mess up: I like all three of the candidates and have offered all three a Better Know a Candidate Blog. All three have shown interest (I'll also be offering such a blog opportunity to Jerry Carlos if he asks for one). 

The key question(s) I have ready for them is: Knowing that you'll be a rookie on, what equates to a perennial last place team (no offense, just look at the box score), and we already know that you will be voting the party line, what will your presence in the district be? What will you do that the other candidates won't be doing?

Assemblywoman Melissa Melendez, candidate for State Senate Dist 28.

Melissa Melendez has set the bar very high with her twice monthly town hall meetings. She also responds to all her mail personally. She is at many local functions, all over her vast district when she's in town (take another look at that map up above). 

Not that she'll need a Better Know a Candidate blog, but I'd be happy to write one on her and her opponent too (if I'm asked). 

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Man is the only animal who will inflict pain on himself, needlessly. Who will torture himself with the remorseless workings of his own mind.
– EG Marshall



Wildomar Rap is all too familiar with the remorseless workings of his own mind... and it can be relentless.

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• EVMWD Capacity Fee Increase

There was an interesting meeting at EVMWD this morning at 10:00am. I wasn't sure if I was going as blogger guy or as a candidate for city council. As it turns out, a bit of both since you're reading this now. 

I added the red numbers and underline.

Number 1 indicates the current cost per house to hook up a 3/4 inch water line and sewer line. Number 2 is the current proposed rate. A difference of $2590 per new home. Larger supply lines will cost more. One inch was said to cost between 1.5 and 1.7 times what's listed above.

The meeting was more of a workshop dealing with a proposed fee increase. The EVMWD board of directors were in the audience, and not in their normal seats at the dais. 

It also was apparent that much of this information had already been shared with the various agencies/cities involved. Though there were several questions at the end, it seemed more like a formality to me.

The proposed fee increase was NOT something that will be affecting ratepayers, just new construction.

Pro Tip: If you've got a project in the works, and you want to save a few grand per, I suggest getting to it before September 1st. That's when the new fees are set to take effect.

To ensure enough water for those that already live here, and to be able to supply the anticipated growth over the next 20 years, there are several projects that need to be built. One of the reasons why the proposed increase was reissued with a smaller increase is that two additional projects have been removed from the list above. Though they are quite likely to be added back to the list in the coming years.

Most of those that attended were either part of the cities that EVMWD services (Lake Elsinore was represented by Mayor Natasha Johnson and Councilmember Steve Manos; Wildomar was represented by Mayor Ben Benoit and Assistant City Manager Dan York; and a council member from Canyon Lake was there too), or had some other vested interest. 

A look at the cost of developing the new sources of water. It was stated that those costs are only for the actual water supply and that there are also other costs that go along with them. Things like pumping costs, storage costs, transmission costs that are part of the capacity fee, the above is just the water supply piece of it.

In addition to elected officials, there were representatives of the BIA (Not - Bureau of Indian Affairs, but Building Industry Association), and other developers. Groups that aren't too sanguine with proposed increases that will directly affect their industry. The BIA rep asked if this could be phased in over time, but that was basically rejected out of hand.

Many people would suggest that the above might suggest easing back on growth for the time being.

The bulk of the meeting was conducted by EVMWD's Government Relations Officer Greg Morrison. He went over issues dealing with the need to increase the fee. It was also stated that EVMWD wanted this fee increase process to be as transparent as possible. It was also noted that in the past such issues would have been addressed in closed meetings.

It was stated quite clearly that they are raising the capacity fees to prevent the surfacing of the "M" word: moratorium. If you've ever thought that we already have enough development in most of this valley, understand that the powers that be don't agree with you. 

This meeting was to let the cities and developers see why the increase in Capacity Fees is necessary. Two numbers were tossed out when it came to buildout. I heard both 40% and 30%. 

EVMWD can promise service, delivering water to the area, through 2040. Makes me wonder what happens in 2041? (other than the 100th anniversary of the US entering WWII that is)

By delaying the implementation of the fee hikes, it'll be costing the district the difference. 

Currently, according to the powerpoint slide, the district has had to supplement the costs by about $2.4M since 2017. If they delay the increase another 6 months, it'll be another $600K. 

They currently are making up the difference out of their share of the property taxes that we all pay. Money that is supposed to go to other needs.

A ray of sunshine to those of us that are already here.

Lake Elsinore city council member Steve Manos asked, "Have you looked at getting a piece of the water bond that voters approved recently, to help finance the infrastructure? Have you looked at local bonding to finance the infrastructure, defraying the costs over a period of time? We live in an area where the sewer rates are the highest in the region, the water rates are the highest in the region."

Greg Morrison thanked Mr. Manos for his question but basically said that bond measures don't usually go towards new growth/development type projects and that it wasn't an apples to apples comparison. 

He didn't address the issues of our area being charged the highest rates in the region. 

We all need somewhere to live, but I'm going to have a difficult time working up any tears for the developers that are going to see their costs increased in order to add the needed infrastructure the area will need if they build. 

A couple of other tidbits I gleaned from the 45 minute meeting...

The fee will be good for about three and a half to four years from what Greg Morrison said, then another increase will be considered. That doesn't include the yearly indexing that will happen as needed.

My favorite line started this way, "If this fee is adopted..."

Come on, we're all adults, let's don't play make believe here. Of course, it's going to be adopted. It'll happen this Thursday evening at the meeting of the EVMWD board of directors.

For more information about this, the topic has its own website: http://evmwdcapacityfees.com/

Wildomar Rap opinion time

We all hate fees, and the only thing we hate more than fees is higher fees.

At the same time, we don't like having our costs go up because of someone else's business needs (in this case: the developers), or newcomers entering the area.

These are basically developer impact fees, but these are the ones that the water department are charging, compared to the ones that the city charges.

If there were no new development, there wouldn't be the need for increased supply of water or sewer or increased Capacity Fees. If there is going to be continued development, the costs shouldn't be added to the balance of the community that doesn't need them. 

When our homes were built, the costs of infrastructure were added to the price of the homes at that time. If you want to avoid paying 2018 fees, buy an old house.

It's clear that the countless fees that are added to every new domicile in this state are part of the reason why housing costs are in the stratosphere in California (ie, the housing shortage), but it's something that emanates from Sacramento, and I don't see any way to avoid them. 

As for the buildout of the area, it's only going to get more and more difficult to live here as we get near the projected top end.

The freeway is already a mess most of the time, and when another 20,000 people are added to Wildomar (buildout is about 55,000), and another 150,000 people are added to Lake Elsinore, just imagine what that will look like when trying to drive somewhere, yikes!

Like I said at the top of the blog, I wasn't sure if I was going as a blogger or as a potential city council member. If elected, I would be attending many similar meetings like this every week. Meetings that don't always have a direct effect on the average resident in town.

It's just part of the territory, being up to speed with things going on in the region, and it's also the type of thing that would be included in an e-newsletter that I've mentioned in my campaign. If you like this level of involvement, consider voting for me if you're in district 3.

Use this link to visit my campaign website for more details.

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"The backbone of surprise is fusing speed with secrecy."
– Carl Philipp Gottfried von Clausewitz

The backbone of Wildomar Rap is fusing speed with accuracy, and a soupçon grating humor.

This blog was produced for viewing on a desktop or a laptop. Though it's been optimized for smartphones, the formatting can look odd on a smartphone or if you get this delivered through email (such as missing video links). Link to proper format.

• Close to 100 People Attend Anti-LEAPS Meeting

This is dealing with a very comprehensive topic, that of LEAPS, which is an acronym for Lake Elsinore Advanced Pumped Storage. If you're new to the topic, it's a biggin. 

A packed house for the LEAPS meeting at the VFW.

I'll be the first one to tell you that I didn't know much more than the average person before the meeting. Now I know a little bit more than the average person when it comes to LEAPS, it's that complicated.

What isn't complicated is the premise. 

A premise that is quite old by this point in 2018, and one that I'd thought was killed off ten years ago. I remember laughing over the absurdity of it before Wildomar even became a city.

In short, the scheme envisions building a 5,000 acre feet reservoir in Decker Canyon. 

I looked all over the internet for an actual photo of the area, but came up empty. This is from google images of the area. The red circle is [part of] Decker Canyon. The yellow star is where I took a photo of Decker Canyon from South Main Divide (below), and the blue star is where I took a photo from Decker Canyon Road (also below). The red street marker on Grand is where the pump station was said to be going in (photo below), currently an empty field just south of Santa Rosa Drive.

The idea is to then pump water from Lake Elsinore up to it at night, then let it flow back to the lake during peak hours (presumably between 2:00pm and 8:00pm) when electricity rates are highest.

This photo was taken off of Decker Canyon Road, from the approximate location indicated by the blue star in the graphic above. The arrow is pointing to the location of the yellow star in the previously mentioned graphic.

This photo was taken from South Main Divide, indicated by the yellow star in the graphic above. The arrow is pointing to the location of the blue star (see graphic up above). It's hard to judge by this photo, but the arrow is several hundred feet lower than the spot where the picture was taken.

It was declared that this project would NOT generate any [net] energy at all. 

In fact, the figures given by the speaker, John Pecora, stated that LEAPS would only recover 85% of the energy expended while getting the water to the upper reservoir when it's released for its midday journey back to the lake.

John Pecora spoke to those in attendance. He had a no nonsense approach, but still came off as a friendly person even after he'd tell a person with an off topic question, "We're not going to talk about that right now, we can talk about that in discussion". Which started after 8pm, once the meeting had concluded. 

He reiterated, more than once, that he wasn't there to talk about how the project functions, the merits of the project, or whether he likes the project or not. He was there to help with how to file paper work about how the project will be affecting them, and in seeking compensation.

In other words, if they spend 100 units getting the water up, they only get back 85 units as it comes back down.

Sounds like one of those "offers you can't refuse".

How is that a good thing?

It's certainly not about the environment, conservation, ecology, or green energy. 

It's about money. 

Pump the water up at night, at a net loss of electricity, and then collect higher fees from the rate payers as it trickles back down in the peak times. 

Pretty clever... pretty cagey... pretty slimy in the real world.

Oh, and if this wasn't enough on it's own, anyone remember ENRON? 

Yeah, according to what was said at the meeting, one of the key players in this is a former ENRON guy. He's the LEAPS project manager, David Kates.

 This is a 3-d map of the Falls Fire dated 2013. I'm using it to give you a different perspective of the area. Also that it's been home to many fires over the years. The red area is where Decker Canyon is located, and the proposed location of a 5,000 acre feet reservoir.

As I said at the top of the blog, this is a weighty subject, and if you want more details, I'll post links at the bottom of the page for you to explore. Including one to a facebook page where you can get details from people that better know the topic.

This empty field, at Grand and Santa Rosa Drive in Lakeland Village, is the location that John Pecora indicated would be the future location of the pumping station/powerhouse.

I'll paraphrase key notes I took during the meeting, there were many:
• Nevada Hydro is seeking to use a 2006 environmental report/document for the current application.
• Next phase is NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act) which requires the applicant to work in harmony with the environment and the community.
• There are about 40 to 45 pump storage projects licensed in the USA. Only 12 of those are 500 Mega Watts or greater, like the LEAPS. Of those 12, only one is built by an existing lake — Michigan. The amount of water that project uses is insignificant to the level of the water in Lake Michigan.

FYI, according to Google, when asking how much water is in Lake Michigan, the answer came back as:
1,180 mi² 

When I asked the same question about Lake Elsinore, the answer was a bit smaller:
43.44 mi²

Basic math tells us that you could fit [at least] 27 Lake Elsinores into 1 Lake Michigan.

• Everyone one of those projects were built in areas where no people lived. Not one was built in a populated area.
• A pump storage project the size of LEAPS has never been licensed to this point. 

My apologies for the blurry photo. Apparently my Samsung doesn't do so well in low light conditions. This was shared at the meeting denoting the 12 500MW, or greater, pump storage projects in the USA.

• In order to build this project, they will be using a chemical called Rotenone to kill and remove all the fish. Probably remain without fish for at least a year.

• During construction of the reservoir and damn, truckloads of dirt will be hauled from from Santa Rosa Drive, up Ortega Highway, south on South Main Divide and dumped at Decker Canyon, from 6:00am to 3:00pm, at a clip of every six minutes. A total of 2.5 million cubic feet of dirt will be moved. 

• The approximate surface of the reservoir is said to be about 100-200 acres. Lake Elsinore is about 3,500 acres. In brief, the lake is shallow, and the reservoir will be deep.
• There will be a daily "tidal action" at the lake, which will expose a "muddy expanse of shoreline" for a period of time while the water is released down the hill.
• They have to maintain the lake at between 1240-1245 elevation. If they can't provide a contract showing they can get the necessary water, they cannot get a permit.
•  Contrary to rumors that the electricity will be heading to San Diego, the electricity will just be going to the grid.
• The entire project will be underground.
• Form letters don't work as well as personal letters/emails, and phone calls, that outline how the project will adversely affect you.
• The lake will be closed between one and two years during construction.
• The project will be crossing an active earthquake fault.

"Read the NEPA documents, on almost every page, there is a reference to harmonious with humans. Now everybody hates the EPA, everybody hates NEPA, but you have to remember, most of the [pump storage] projects that are licensed by FERC are in rural areas, there aren't a whole lot of people around. 

This (LEAPS) is different, this is in the middle of a heavily populated area with property owners around the lake." 

—John Pecora, February 26, 2018

Brief Tangent Time:
Many have heard me rail about the misnomer of this area being called "rural" and though it most certainly was at one point, that ship has sailed long ago.

From what I got from the meeting, John Pecora lives in a relatively remote area, but still can recognize that we are in a "highly populated area", which runs completely against the quaint notion that we are somehow rural at the same time.

Last comment

I was impressed with Mr. Pecora. He was articulate, knew his subject inside and out, had a good disposition, seemed to have a good sense of humor, was patient and delivered his points with a positive attitude. It was obvious that the local officials, that attended the meeting, respected what he had to say. 

It sure would be nice if [most of] the local activists in Wildomar had even a tenth of this man's class. Imagine what they could accomplish... but I digress.

These are contacts of the key figures, and John Pecora encouraged those impacted to
try calling them and be ready to explain your damages and what compensation you want.

Other facts
• The city of Lake Elsinore, the County of Riverside, EVMWD, Assemblywoman Melissa Melendez, US Representative Ken Clavert, among others, have all gone on the record being against this project. 
• The project is suing EVMWD.

Until I went up there to take some photos of Decker Canyon, I'd never used South Main Divide... not even when it was called Killen Trail. Always too busy just trying to get to work, or get back home. Wow, such great views to the east, of the lake, as much as the ones to the west, Decker Canyon.

After the hour long meeting, I went up to Lake Elsinore city councilmember Steve Manos and asked his take on the meeting, if the info seemed legit.

The information, seems to me, to be pretty solid. It was good information and I think that people should put in their requests for compensation [to Nevada Hydro] if it happens, but for us (the City of Lake Elsinore) we're not asking for compensation, we just don't want it (the project). 

—Steve Manos, Lake Elsinore City Council Member

This is the first page you see when you visit the LEAPS Hydro webpage. The gall to claim they will be providing "clean, reliable power" when it'll produce a net loss of 15% when the scores are tallied up. A link to this page is provided below.

If you'd like to join the Stop LEAPS Facebook page, here is the link.

Link to the Official Response (288 pages) by LEAPS Hydro, dated December 17, 2017

Link to LEAPS Hydro (the picture above)

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Sometimes it is not enough that we do our best; we must do what is required.
– Winston Churchill 

Yet again, Wildomar Rap has exceeded the requirements.

• New Bike Park

Two years ago Lake Elsinore built Wildomar a skateboard park, and this year they built us a pretty unique bicycle/scooter track, added a basketball court and a dog park too. Thanks LE!!! ☺

Link to 2015 blog about the the new skateboard park

LE Storm's mascot Thunder, 

Ok, just having some fun here. 

They'll tell you that the park is theirs, but according to the map, it's just on the other side of Corydon, at Palomar.

The park starts at the intersection of Corydon and Palomar heading north.

While it is indeed within the city limits of Lake Elsinore, it's closer to W'mar than Elsinore proper, so we'll let them think it's theirs, while we go over and use it.
 

Link to Oct 2016 blog covering the groundbreaking of this park expansion.

2017 Lake Elsinore Bob Magee giving the dedication speech.

After the formalities were over, I caught up with Mayor Bob Magee and asked him for his thoughts about the new additions to the park.

It's been a long time coming. The first residents here (referring to the neighborhood across the street to the west) bought homes back in the 1984, and they expected things a lot sooner.

We have worked diligently to improve this linear park, to add more features and more property to it. 

(Motioning to the north) You see our tennis court at the far end, we put in a permanent bathroom facility, we've got the skate park, with [a] shaded structure now and seats. 

We've got a basketball court, we've got jungle gyms down there, and now the bicycle track, they also use with scooters. And then we have a dog park [here], the fourth dog park in our city.

Ten years ago we didn't have a single dog park in our city, now we have four with a fifth under construction. 

(Pointing to the east) The idea down here, on the acre that we have here on the slope, is to do a fitness track with obstacles and a running course. That way, you can drop your kids off —they can be down here (at the bike track or skateboard area), dogs can be in [their] park, and you can be down there exercising. You get everything done in one hour.

2017 Lake Elsinore Mayor Bob Magee

My response to his vision was, "That's awesome." 

LE Councilmember Natasha Johnson readies the scissors on the ribbon.

The dog park has two fenced areas. One for small breed dogs, the other for larger breed dogs. The line is at 30 pounds, but if I were to go, I'd be putting my overweight pooches into the small breed area anyway. They're not fat, they're just big boned.

A look at the two signs that divide the dog park.

A set of very inviting basketball half-courts.

This is the area that will eventually become a workout area.

LE Councilmember Natasha Johnson took a lap around the track. She made it without crashing, though she did appear to be a bit wobbly at times. Being over 18, she wasn't legally required to wear a helmet, but I'm thinking it may have been a nice chance at role modeling. ☺

LE councilmember Steve Manos took a couple of test laps. At times traffic jams built up behind him. He'd have worn a helmet, but then it might have messed up that great hair of his. ☺

What the kids from my generation, back in the '70s, would't have done to have such a great park. 

Seriously, our version of motocross tracks were either jumping the lip of a driveway or setting up homemade ramps with planks elevated by a green Coleman cooler.

Ah the memories of the near misses.

Way to go Lake Elsinore city council. The kids will really enjoy this new jewel in your city.

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Toleration is the greatest gift of the mind; it requires the same effort of the brain that it takes to balance oneself on a bicycle. – Helen Keller

With all do respect, Wildomar Rap would love to see some pictures of Ms. Keller on a bike.